Colonials Corner

The difficulty of repeating in the Northeast Conference is surprisingly difficult. Teams may make it through the regular season slate unscathed and atop the league, but come Tournament time, all bets are off. Witness RMU’s upset loss to Mount St. Mary’s two years ago. No team has repeat as NEC Champs since Rider in 1993-1994.

In a recent teleconference, Mike Rice described the difficulty of repeating as NEC Champion like this:

It’s hard to reload. This league wins with veterans. What did my team have the past two years? They had older veteran guys who’ve played in a lot of Division I basketball games and knew what it took to be successful: not to beat yourselves and play hard every possession, you could go on and on. I had veteran guys. It’s hard at the lower levels to reload. We can’t go out and pick a McDonald’s All-American. You go out and find out what happened to an LIU program who I picked 1st and 2nd with Mount, you’re not going to go out and fill that void immediately. That’s why I think it’s hard every year to repeat – not even repeat, but just be in the mention for the top 2 or 3 teams in the league.

With all that in mind, as well as the benefit of late knowledge – such as major hits to LIU and CCSU’s rosters – that the coaches did not have when they made their picks, I’ve mapped out below how the Northeast Conference will finish.

Teams are listed in order of the Colonials Corner projection. NEC Coaches Poll finish listed in parenthesis, and the NEC Tournament bracket is at the bottom.

1. Mount St. Mary’s (1) – Outside of RMU, the deepest team in the league. Jeremy Goode is an easy bet to be player of the year, and Shawn Atupem is one of the better big men in the league. The question for the Mount is whether they can score enough to match their shutdown defense. They’ll make it through the league unscathed, but balanced scoring could be an interesting question in the NEC Tournament.
2. Robert Morris (3t) - They’ll have some problems against good defensive teams in the league on the road. Monmouth, Mount, and a select others could be troublesome despite the athleticism on the team. But the schedule is favorable for RMU. They can get a ton of experience in the non-conference slate, get an early taste of the Mount in December, and if it clicks, they could be finishing strong yet again.
3. Central Connecticut State (5) - They had four returning starters until Ken Horton went out with hip surgery for the year. That said, I like them better than the NEC coaches apparently do. Horton, an All NEC Team member, is a huge loss. But the Blue Devils are deeper than they were last year, and I think this could be Shemik Thompson’s breakout year. A former NEC Rookie of the Year, Thompson will be the key to any success for the Blue Devils.
4. Quinnipiac (3t) - Quinnipiac was strong last year but faded late in the year before being blown out by RMU in the Tournament. Justin Rutty, a 1st Team NEC pick, could be the player of the year as the best big man in the conference. The key question will be if they can shake off the injuries – which contributed to their fade – and return healthy. If they do, they could win it all, especially if someone like CCSU slips out of the race early.
5. Long Island (2) - Some may drop them further, but Jaytornah Wisseh (All NEC Team) is just too good to let the Blackbirds fall too far. I don’t think they can survive the losses completely – F Aurimas Adomaitis and G Lucas Faggiano both returned to their native countries to play pro ball, while F Julian Boyd is out for the year with a heart problem – but Wisseh and Kyle Johnson are both talented enough to get them a decent slot in the Tournament.
6. St. Francis NY (7) – Kayode Ayeni is healthy, Stefan Perunicic has a year of NEC hoops under his belt, and Ricky Cadell was a surprise running the offense. They’re more experienced this year, and they could make some moves if they can show they have depth as well. The question will be if they have enough to take out one of the top dogs in the NEC. Brian Nash is one of the better coaches in the NEC.
7. Sacred Heart (6) – Always in the picture, Sacred Heart finds a way to step back out of the picture in crunch time. The Pioneers will be a perimeter based squad this season, and in a suddenly frontcourt oriented league, that may not be the right mix. They could get some long range wins, but I don’t think the Pioneers will be able to take a team late in the game in the NEC Tournament and scrap out a victoy.
8. Fairleigh Dickinson (8) – Sean Baptiste has three other starters returning alongside him. Unfortunately for Baptiste, they don’t carry All NEC credentials like he does. Throw in some turmoil – an interim head coach after a late removal of long time head man Tom Green – Cameron Tyler might present a bit of an argument, but there’s just not enough here for FDU to be good enough to win a title. They can knock some people off and be a thorn in the potential champion’s side, but that’s about it.
9. Monmouth (9) - Brand new digs, same ol’ Monmouth. They do get Whitney Coleman back, but the Hawks are still a defense first team that will struggle to keep pace offensively. Monmouth will drag the score down into the 50s, but that’s not enough to win a title in this day and age. It will be interesting to see how Coleman meshes with sophomore F Travis Taylor, who emerged as a key player last year.
10. Bryant (11) - Ineligible for the tournament, but their games count in the conference and players can win awards. The Bulldogs could surprise some teams, but I think the top teams will dispatch them with regularity. They have three returning starters and some quality new faces, including Frankie Dobbs, an Ohio University transfer who will be eligible next year.
11. Wagner (10) - The completely overhauled program will take a lot of lumps this year. They have one returning starter and the seven overall letterwinners coming back have very little experience. Michael Orock and Chris Martin have to be leaders on and off the floor, and they’ll need to score quite a few points to make the transition easier on head coach Mike Deane.
12. St. Francis PA (12) - Any hope of a resurgence was hit with the loss of Mislav Jukic for the season with an injury. The Frankies are back to being a one man show in Devin Sweetney. It can’t be what he bargained for upon arriving in Loretto, but at least head coach Don Friday has Sweetney to guide his team through the rebuilding process that is still under way.

NEC TOURNAMENT

• #1 Mount St Mary’s over #8 Fairleigh Dickinson – FDU has no shot to upset the Mount.
• #2 Robert Morris over #7 Sacred Heart – Pioneers won’t be able to penetrate enough to top RMU.
• #6 St. Francis NY over #3 CCSU – Blue Devils will miss Horton here and SFNY will be primed for an upset.
• #4 Quinnipaic over #5 LIU – LIU just won’t have enough after a long season.

• #4 Quinnipiac over #1 Mount St. Mary’s – Justin Rutty will cause everyone problems this year, and a big game could lead to a huge upset.
• #2 Robert Morris over #6 St. Francis NY – Perunicic could cause problems, but a tighter defense will lead to a repeat trip to the final for RMU.

• #2 Robert Morris over #4 Quinnipiac – On their home floor and with the Mount out of the way, RMU makes a statement. Their depth and defense will be too much for most teams to overcome.

• Mount St. Mary’s runs away with the title due to their experience and defense. Their main challengers – Quinnipiac and RMU – can’t score enough to overcome the defensive front.
• Quinnipiac rides Justin Rutty to a title as the Mount and RMU eliminate each other in a quirky seeding scenario.
• RMU can’t click consistently enough, gets a lower seed, and Mount St. Mary’s gets them dispatched before the title game.
• Essentially, all the scenarios eventually come down to one of RMU, Mount St. Mary’s, and Quinnipiac winning the title, even though Quinnipiac is projected 4th in the standings. The regular season is a different animal from the NEC Tournament, and I think the Bobcats are designed better for the short Tournament than the long haul of the season.